01-07-2024, 11:29 AM | #199 |
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Hi Brake. Thanks for the response. I’d like to address some of your points later but I’m running out the door now. Before I go though, I think you misunderstand the four year halving.
The halving is not fracturing existing Bitcoins nor fracturing yet to be mined Bitcoins. What the halving does is cut the amount of new bitcoins that can be mined in half. There is 50% less production. Right now approximately 900 new Bitcoins can be mined daily. After April 2024 only 450/day and in 4 years it will be 225 and so on and so on until all 21m are harvested. This doubles the cost of mining the Butcoins which makes new Bitcoins more expensive Valuable which also increases the value of previously mined Bitcoins. Over the past 3 cycles this has raised the value of a Bitcoin by 10x. |
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01-07-2024, 11:36 AM | #200 | |
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01-07-2024, 03:07 PM | #201 | |
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I've mined coins until ASICS became a thing then I just bought a few at $2,500 and I was called a fool many times for doing so. Needless to say where Nvidia sits today in the market, BTC was what gave me a solid footing in the market because I never invested at all in my early 20s but just fucked around with BTC because as a software guy, I liked the idea of it. The four year halving is what is contributing to this cyclical upswing. I could've said this were a fools game back when I was mining with CPUs then GPUs and eventually ASICS when Butterfly labs was a thing but its certainly not not a fools game when as others have mentioned its used a lot for laundering purposes due to its traceability. |
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01-07-2024, 03:54 PM | #202 | |
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I understand that blockchain technology is sophisticated and that reputable companies are getting involved to take advantage of the situation, but their presence doesn’t refute the basic premise that bitcoin by itself produces nothing. |
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01-08-2024, 11:40 AM | #203 |
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Here we go. It’s literally about to happen any moment now.
https://x.com/garygensler/status/174...AXS7kJM7Jo6xGg This article basically means, the SEC is about to approve Bitcoin for a Spot ETF. This has been a 10 year ongoing challenge/battle and it's finally here. Institutional wealth about to flow into Bitcoin. Last edited by Monkey Throttle; 01-08-2024 at 12:19 PM.. |
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01-08-2024, 12:54 PM | #204 | |
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Although not "spot" there are many crypto ETFs to simulate such already and for years.
https://www.proshares.com/our-etfs/strategic/bito They also have dedicated ETFs to the companies in the industry. https://amplifyetfs.com/blok/ I don't believe a true spot ETF for any of the cryptos is going to have much of an impact. Quote:
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01-08-2024, 12:58 PM | #205 |
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Brake I have some time now so would love to share my thoughts. I'm not an economist so please don't get too hung up on my vernacular or the misuse of it. I'm painting the forest with a wide brush.
- "The Greater Fool Theory" in all my years of investing, I've more heard of this referred to as growth investing rather than value investing. While purchasing products of value is a smart/conservative approach, in the past 20-30 years we have seen a shift. Companies like Bernstein who were known for being value only merged with Alliance so they could have growth in their formula/offerings. All tech stocks were growth - until they weren't. Imagine missing out on all the tech booms. Of course it's more volatile and there are crashes, but it's also necessary to have risk as part of a smart, well balanced portfolio. Having volatile/risk actually makes a portfolio safer over the long term. I forget the name of the economic principle though. - You said, "Bitcoin produces NOTHING and does NOTHING on its own." That is not true. It is a medium of exchange and a store of value. What does gold do? What does silver do? what do diamonds do? Outside of their very limited use in manufacturing and jewelry, they are a store of value and to a lesser extent, a medium of exchange. It's just not as good of a store of value or as good as a medium of exchange as Bitcoin - other than its historical adoption and community agreement of value. - Why is Bitcoin a better store of value? It's a better store of value because it's anti-inflationary. Two decisions by the original programmer made Bitcoin brilliant. 1. It finite. There will only ever be 21 Million Bitcoin. No one can just print more. So unlike FIAT, it's not up to a government or treasury. It can't be debased because of overprinting. The mining rewards are fixed. - When the value of gold goes up, more people mine gold. More gold enters the system. Same with silver, diamonds and other precious metals. This is not the case with Bitcoin. There only is or will be what there is and will be. 2. The amount of new Bitcoins that can be mined gets cut in half every 4 years. So as the US or Argentina or the UK print more of their currency, it becomes less valuable. The value of Bitcoin increases every cycle because there is less available to harvest. Like other stores of value what makes these things valuable is the local or global community collectively deciding its value. Let's be honest, if the shit ever hits the fan the only things of value will be food, water, medicine and ammo. Who cares about a gold rolex if you can't feed your family? So let's categorize Bitcoin for this argument the same way we look at precious metals, designer watches, old Porches and BMW's. It's the global community that decided these things have value. Well, the global community continues to further accept and embrace Bitcoin. Once Wall St. agrees something is something than it by definition is something. And once Blackrock, Fidelity, Vanguard, JP Morgan, etc. all decide that Bitcoin is a better store of wealth than it has gained institutional acceptance. And that is where we are now. Circling back to the 1990's there was a time we were all afraid to make purchases on the internet. Look at where we are now. Can you imagine not having Amazon at your fingertips. Bitcoin miraculously has survived. It could have gone to $0 several times but it hasn't. And it hasn't because the fundamentals behind it are actually very strong. It's smarter money. It's a smarter store of wealth. So let's look at what's happened with Bitcoin over the last 12 years. - It's averaged around 144% annual returns. - It has over time, been legitimized and standardized by trustworthy exchanges. - 92% of all Bitcoin wallets are in the green. - It has gained (any day now) approval of the S.E.C. for a Spot ETF - Nation states are approving it for legal tender. - Billions of dollars are flooding into the space. - It is recognized as one of the best "brands" that has ever existed with no CEO. Control owned by no one and universally known. Bitcoin is a TRILLION dollar asset after only 14 years. If Bitcoin was going to go away, it would have gone away by now but instead it's at $45,000 a coin and Blackrock, Fidelity and Vanguard are opening the doors for corporate treasures to invest in it. So, if you have a well diversified portfolio of property, stocks, bonds - including international markets and emerging markets, etc. you probably understand the conversation of volatile - high risk - high reward components in that portfolio. Well, anyone who's putting money into emerging markets right now and not putting money into Bitcoin is being myopic or just isn't educated in the space yet - but they will be. Bitcoin is young. Bitcoin has had its share of horrible press (SBF, etc.) but it continues to grow and mature. Once you get through all the disinformation that Bitcoin is only used for drugs, sex trafficking, etc. you will hopefully see what we see, the next evolution of technology. Web3. Tokenization. Hope this helps.. And please, keep firing away with questions or debates. I'm happy to engage to best of my abilities. And buy some Bitcoin. Even if you don't believe in it and even if it's just a little. |
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01-08-2024, 01:04 PM | #206 | |
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So corporate treasuries, pension funds, retirement accounts, etc. were not able to invest in BTC. Now they are (or will be) and that represents trillions of potential dollars. What happens when Blackrock puts their clientele into a 1% allocation? What about a 5% or 10% allocation? Also, don't minimize the potential affect companies like Blackrock, Vanguard, Fidelity, etc. have with their sales forces selling BTC to their clientele. It's estimated Qatar and Saudi Arabia are about to buy $500 Billion in BTC. But everyone is waiting for US regulators to green stamp it. Also, the US Spot ETF for Bitcoin is having an impact in China where Hong Kong is starting to push for a Spot ETF for Bitcoin there. What happens when people in China start putting a percentage of their portfolios into BTC also? The potential global impact is enormous and insane. |
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01-08-2024, 01:17 PM | #207 |
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That doesn't make sense as it would be about 1/2 of all the BTC that exists and would be about the same as the total US gold reserves.
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01-08-2024, 01:26 PM | #208 | |
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(People Saying this all over the place) https://youtu.be/F8PuJbjMuY0?si=NgBE-lKOaMiIaesa |
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01-08-2024, 01:32 PM | #209 |
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Also, did you know the US Govt holds about $5billion of Bitcoin?
https://www.wsj.com/finance/currenci...lion-78ce0938# |
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01-08-2024, 03:55 PM | #210 |
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If anyone is interested, I have a piece of paper with a smiley face on it that I tore into 15 pieces. There will only ever be 1 full smiley face so needless to say these 15 smaller pieces are rare and finite. I am fielding offers for these 15 torn smiley face papers and will record your user name in this thread as a documented official owner. Serious offers only as I know what I have.
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01-08-2024, 04:25 PM | #211 | |
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Is the benchmark worldwide adoption? Wall St.? Main St.? $100,000 BTC? $500,000 BTC? Who or what would trigger your reframe of Bitcoin as a worthless money scam to a legitimate asset? What would make you rethink it? |
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01-08-2024, 05:37 PM | #213 |
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"El Salvador's #Bitcoin investments are in the black!
After literally thousands of articles and hit pieces that ridiculed our supposed losses, all of which were calculated based on #Bitcoin’s market price at the time... With the current #Bitcoin market price, if we were to sell… pic.twitter.com/gvl2GfQMfb — Nayib Bukele (@nayibbukele) December 4, 2023" "At the time of writing, El Salvador has purchased 2,770 BTC in total at an average price of $42,436.22 per coin for a portfolio cost of $117.5 million, according to the “Nayib Bukele Portfolio Tracker,” which follows the changes in El Salvador’s Bitcoin stash. It was running an overall profit of $4.16 million — up 3.54% — as recently as Dec. 9, when BTC was selling for about $44,000. Bukele’s first bulk BTC purchase was made on Sept. 6, 2021; his last was on Nov. 18, 2022, s" So, as of Dec 3, 2022 they were up 3.5%. at BTC = $42,436. Today BTC is at $47000. El Salvador has 2770BTC. Back of envelop math, $47,000 subtract $42,436 = $4564 increase per BTC multiplied by 2770btc... They are up another $12,642,280. |
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01-08-2024, 06:59 PM | #214 | |
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"Paradise lost? How crypto failed to deliver on its promises and what to do about it" (Speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a panel on the future of crypto at the 22nd BIS Annual Conference, 23 June 2023) https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/...1450e6.en.html Excerpt: "An estimated three-quarters of bitcoin users suffered losses on their initial investments at this time.
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01-08-2024, 07:19 PM | #215 | |
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So the information about Bitcoin holders being in the red is out of date. 92% of all Bitcoin wallets are in the green. The article does not take into account that we are on the cusp of a Spot ETF approval by the United States S.E.C. And is also a centralized bank fighting the idea of a decentralized currency. Of course they would prefer it not to happen, it reduces their power. |
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01-08-2024, 10:32 PM | #216 | |
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The theory you may be referring to is "modern portfolio theory' whereby adding riskier assets into your portfolio with a negative covariance to your other assets may produce a better return. Bitcoin has all the underpinnings of sophistication, new tech, and scarcity to make it seem like it's different from investing fads such as 1600s Dutch tulip bulbs, late 1980s Japanese real estate, early 80s gold, internet stocks in the late 90s, homes in CA/FL in 2000s... but only time will tell whether its outcomes will be different. You hit the nail on the head when you said "Like other stores of value what makes these things valuable is the local or global community collectively deciding its value." That's exactly right, it's monetary value is solely based on someone thinking Bitcoin is worth X. So, this is in line w/ the 'greater fool theory' - once the rhetoric changes and ppl stop thinking it's worth anything, it drops in value like a rock (already has twice in '21 and once in '22). Other more reputable companies jumping into bitcoin doesn't necessarily legitimize it, rather it may be that these financial/investment companies are taking advantage of a situation to make $ off of it or meeting the demands of its clients who want to put money in crypto. For ex. Goldman Sachs didn't believe that it's repackaged shitty mortgaged backed securities w/ a false AAA rating was legitimate or good investment prior to the crash in 2008, but they bought it in an effort to offload it for a profit. "92% of all Bitcoin wallets are in the green." - this may be due to survivorship bias. There have been many ppl who lost money with Bitcoin (especially if they bought it during its peak at $64k in Nov 2021). If you take EVERYone who has ever bought/sold bitcoin (not just those holding bitcoin currently) and check what their personal rate of return was - it may show a much bleaker statistic. In terms of its use as a store of value that is immune to inflation - sure, it may protect against inflation due to its finite amount, but the loss of purchasing power of fiat currency is only decreased by the rate of inflation. It's not like we're living in post WWI Germany where you're losing value exponentially. Also, if you take into consider that The Federal Reserve exists (and has existed) for this reason to stabilize the economy, it's going to be fine (we've gone through inflation many times and made it out intact). We don't NEED to find an alternative source to store our money as the apocalypse is not happening. On the other hand, Bitcoin always carries with it risk of losing a SIGNIFICANT amount of money at any time. It's already done that multiple times since its peak of $64k in 2021. What's the use of it being a good store of value if it comes with this volatility? At least with the US dollar, $100 doesn't become $50 in one day. This is just my opinion, but I think bitcoin is something useful for a gambler or a speculator in the market; whereby, if you can time it right you can double your money (or more) very quickly. But my personal feeling is that; - the 'free money' has dried up from the pandemic - the current economic climate is bleaker than what it has been - ppl now have experiences with losing money in crypto - and the initial novelty and hype of bitcoin (and other crypto) has worn off As such, the golden period for crypto may have already come and gone in 2021-22. However, that's not to say that it can't go up again (just maybe it won't exponentially increase like it once did) |
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01-08-2024, 10:54 PM | #217 |
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Haven’t heard a thing that tells me bitcoin doesn’t end like every other ponzi scheme.
Wall Street and the global investment community LOVED mortgage backed securities. Banks like Washington Mutual moved into the mainstream and were darlings on Wall Street. All sorts of institutional investors and governments and pension funds went all in. People made money, lots of it and at one point i bet 90+% were in the black. Until they weren’t. And those investments had real property behind them. Not some hand waving about intentional finite design of something that is actually anti-finite since it’s nothing more than a digital concept. Hard pass. |
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01-08-2024, 11:56 PM | #218 |
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Great conversation!
I might be wrong to summarize some of the convo this way, but it seems to me that what’s underneath a lot of the (reasonable) skepticism is the uncertainty of whether Bitcoin has any actual inherent value that can justify the price or if the price is determined purely by ponzi/greater fool. What would you say is the inherent value of Bitcoin - eg, what is it useful for, what can it do that nothing else can, is that really worth 45k, etc?
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01-09-2024, 12:00 AM | #219 | |
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At the moment, the upside rewards would seem to far outweigh the downside risk. Institutional wealth is about to flow in. Any day now Gensler and the SEC will approve the ETF and the flood gates will open. Today BTC went from $42k to $47k in a couple of hours with just the anticipation of a ETF approval. Every halving has produced a 10x result within 12-18 months. So compound that with the spot ETF and it seems like the fuel we’ve all been waiting for to bring us to the next 10x. Look at the charts of Bitcoin. Yeah they crash. It has to crash to be able to grow the way it does. But long term it’s up and to the right and up and to the right. It only becomes more normalized and standardized. It will crash again. And it will go to all time highs again. But the highs always get higher and the lows are also higher. $16k wasn’t a bad value considering it came up from $3k. |
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