09-10-2017, 04:41 PM | #1 |
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Holding out for decent residuals
Anyone else here holding out on leasing a 2018 until the residuals are less shit?
This time last year the new 2017 MY residual was 57%, the new 2018 MY is 53%. I'm considering just buying, but was hoping to use the lease as a tax write off. I like the idea of leasing too. My buddy just had a smash in his 1 year old F30 that he bought and now it has a wreck on the title. Here's hoping Oct or Nov are better, can't see it move by more than 1 or 2 points though. |
09-10-2017, 10:06 PM | #2 |
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Life is short. These cars make short lives more entertaining. If you want one, just do it.
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09-11-2017, 12:06 AM | #3 | |
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The other models have pretty good deals still which makes it all the more annoying. |
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09-11-2017, 11:41 AM | #4 |
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If you can stomach a 2017 deals on those should be very good if you can find one equipped the way you want it. I got a 2016 this time last year with a 63% residual.
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09-11-2017, 04:18 PM | #5 | |
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Yep I'd like to do 2017 at this point, I'm looking and there's two MT's in the color I want about 600 miles away. Still going back and forth with dealer. If he plays ball I'll probably go with that. Not looking likely though! I think 10% is a fair discount on a 2017 at this point - he does not. |
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09-12-2017, 06:07 AM | #6 | |
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Given what I learned in this forum, I was looking to get a 9% discount from an outgoing, in-stock model. The dealer was offering 7% upfront, so I thought 9% on a cash purchase wouldn't be a big deal. I was optimistic that the deal would happen because that particular car was pretty loaded with options (read: good room for the dealer to give me a discount off MSRP) and had a good amount of test drive miles in it. After some exhaustive conversations with the dealer, the negotiation didn't move and I had to buy something else. 2 months later, the same dealer called me saying they would give me the discount I was looking for. It was unfortunately too late, as I had already committed with the other purchase. Had I waited a couple more months playing poker with the dealer, I would have gotten the car at the price I wanted. |
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09-12-2017, 07:01 PM | #7 | |
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09-13-2017, 03:56 AM | #8 | |
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I trawled trough the 'Post your deal' thread. These are historic residuals for 10k/36mo. Take note the newest MY is always listed, it drops as each new MY is avail to order. As you can see, it seems to be trending down. Last edited by snaketh; 09-13-2017 at 04:03 AM.. |
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09-16-2017, 04:34 AM | #9 | |
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09-17-2017, 02:01 PM | #10 | |
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This car is amazing! |
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09-18-2017, 01:18 AM | #11 |
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Thanks for the chart. I can't believe the lease residuals are now at 53%. This is insane.
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09-19-2017, 11:03 AM | #12 |
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I don't think it's insane at all. Clean 2014s with low miles are currently selling for around 55% of MSPR on the private market, and CPO examples are selling in the low 60% range. These numbers won't get any better when our cars approach the end of the model cycle 3 years from now.
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09-19-2017, 03:22 PM | #13 | |
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09-19-2017, 04:19 PM | #14 |
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Correct 100%. People have gotten so used to inflated residuals that realistic residuals literally shock them.
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09-24-2017, 07:05 PM | #15 |
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I got in at a 60% 12k/36 lease in October 2015 (on a 15 model) and thought that was a little low. My 3 series was 63% on a 15k. Appears the good residual days are over.
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09-26-2017, 12:40 PM | #16 |
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I guess the question is, if they can currently push the metal at realistic residuals, why would they use artificially high ones? A 2014 3 series with 45k is currently worth nowhere near 63% of MSRP. It's more like 50%-55% for CPO examples that fit that description and are actually selling.
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09-26-2017, 01:39 PM | #17 | |
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09-26-2017, 03:58 PM | #18 |
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Good luck to them getting even that much. My local BMW dealer has a bunch of 2014 CPO F30s with 38k-45k miles on them taking up lot space at 55% of MSRP or less, including a 2014 CPO 335i with 41k miles that's sitting there at 50% of MSRP...
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