[ZL9M2]

Originally Posted by ga9213

Why shouldn't he be serious?

https://www.reuters.com/business/aut...source=twitter

cliffs: Model 3's break even vs a Toyota Corolla is only 13,500 miles.

^^

[OkieSnuffBox]

Originally Posted by Murf the Surf

How much will it cost to charge your EV when the government loses Billions in gas tax and must spend trillions to upgrade the grid from more nuclear power plants, transmission lines and charging stations? There will be a cost transference. EV's may be very cheap to run now but the costs will go up as the uptake goes up. Should be interesting to see if they are cheaper or more expensive 20 years from now.

This.

Oklahoma and Texas have already been told to prepare for rolling blackouts this summer, again.

[freakystyly]

Originally Posted by ZL9M2

Absolutely! For example, the Reuters reference above compares a ~$50k Tesla to a ~$20k Corolla. And only compares the ongoing operating parameters of the two, not the total environmental and economic picture.

It's unicorn farts and fairy dust.

It's supposed to be environmental impact (heavily based on geographic location)... actual cost will be 2-3x cheaper in favor of the Corolla over its lifespan.

[ga9213]

Originally Posted by ZL9M2

Absolutely! For example, the Reuters reference above compares a ~$50k Tesla to a ~$20k Corolla. And only compares the ongoing operating parameters of the two, not the total environmental and economic picture.

It's unicorn farts and fairy dust.

Show us the comparative data then that you claim supports your assertions.

PS: If you'd read more into the model they used (Argonne National Laboratory model), the battery type and size is included in their model's carbon estimates and factors in extraction/processing.

The model was developed by the Argonne National Laboratory in Chicago and includes thousands of parameters from the type metals in an electric vehicle (EV) battery to the amount of aluminium or plastic in a car.

Argonne's Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions and Energy Use in Technologies (GREET) model is now being used with other tools to help shape policy at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the California Air Resources Board, the two main regulators of vehicle emissions in the United States.

Jarod Cory Kelly, principal energy systems analyst at Argonne, said making EVs generates more carbon than combustion engine cars, mainly due to the extraction and processing of minerals in EV batteries and production of the power cells.

But estimates as to how big that carbon gap is when a car is first sold and where the "break-even" point comes for EVs during their lifetime can vary widely, depending on the assumptions.

Kelly said the payback period then depends on factors such as the size of the EV's battery, the fuel economy of a gasoline car and how the power used to charge an EV is generated.

[ZL9M2]

Originally Posted by ga9213

Show us the comparative data then that you claim supports your assertions.

I just listed it.... A $20k car vs a $50k car. Apples and oranges; and only comparing data during the operating life of the two. This shit is common sense, don't fight it.

[ga9213]

Originally Posted by ZL9M2

I just listed it.... A $20k car vs a $50k car. Apples and oranges; and only comparing data during the operating life of the two. This shit is common sense, don't fight it.

The chain of this conversation started with this.

Yes. And this discussion should also include the environmental impact of the production of all these batteries, not just the eventual waste.

What does environmental impact of the production of the batteries and their "waste" have to do with their purchase price?

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by ZL9M2

I just listed it.... A $20k car vs a $50k car. Apples and oranges; and only comparing data during the operating life of the two. This shit is common sense, don't fight it.

Even if we charged the tesla for free with rainbow and unicorn energy, a Corolla is only using ~$2047 a year in fuel

Data for this figure: 2022 corolla rated MPG = 31/40 city/highway, 33 combined. Average it to 33 MPG at 15,000 miles a year is 455 gallons. Even at current record gas prices of $4.50, it's $2027 in annual fuel cost. If gas went back to $2.50 we ar elooking at $1127

At $2000 a year in fuel cost, it takes 15 years and 210,000 miles to save that $30K price delta. And this assumes electricity is free. Mine isn't.

[ga9213]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

Even if we charged the tesla for free with rainbow and unicorn energy, a Corolla is only using ~$2047 a year in fuel

Data for this figure: 2022 corolla rated MPG = 31/40 city/highway, 33 combined. Average it to 33 MPG at 15,000 miles a year is 455 gallons. Even at current record gas prices of $4.50, it's $2027 in annual fuel cost. If gas went back to $2.50 we ar elooking at $1127

At $2000 a year in fuel cost, it takes 15 years and 210,000 miles to save that $30K price delta. And this assumes electricity is free. Mine isn't.

None of this is relevant to what is being discussed here with respect to the chain of conversation that led to this point.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by ga9213

None of this is relevant to what is being discussed here with respect to the chain of conversation that led to this point.

Sorry to disappoint.

[Murf the Surf]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

Even if we charged the tesla for free with rainbow and unicorn energy, a Corolla is only using ~$2047 a year in fuel

Data for this figure: 2022 corolla rated MPG = 31/40 city/highway, 33 combined. Average it to 33 MPG at 15,000 miles a year is 455 gallons. Even at current record gas prices of $4.50, it's $2027 in annual fuel cost. If gas went back to $2.50 we ar elooking at $1127

At $2000 a year in fuel cost, it takes 15 years and 210,000 miles to save that $30K price delta. And this assumes electricity is free. Mine isn't.

At some point utilities and government will have to spend Trillions to upgrade the grid, and there will be lost gas taxes as the transition occurs, electricity will become very expensive.

[ga9213]

Originally Posted by Murf the Surf

At some point utilities and government will have to spend Trillions to upgrade the grid, and there will be lost gas taxes as the transition occurs, electricity will become very expensive.

It's almost like some of the 5.9 trillion in subsidies for oil/gas per year should be repurposed.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by Murf the Surf

At some point utilities and government will have to spend Trillions to upgrade the grid, and there will be lost gas taxes as the transition occurs, electricity will become very expensive.

And electricity isn't as green as people think it is.

We'll get there, and in my lifetime, but it will be an ugly journey.

[ZL9M2]

Originally Posted by ga9213

None of this is relevant to what is being discussed here with respect to the chain of conversation that led to this point.

Yes, it is particularly relevant. Total environmental and economic impact.... When you start dealing with facts, reality and common sense the argument for EVs breaks down quickly. Step away from the Kool Aid for a second. And if your tax dollars paid for "free" gas stations to be built for every "free" recharging site the argument breaks down further. This isn't that hard....

[Ximian]

Originally Posted by Murf the Surf

How much will it cost to charge your EV when the government loses Billions in gas tax and must spend trillions to upgrade the grid from more nuclear power plants, transmission lines and charging stations? There will be a cost transference. EV's may be very cheap to run now but the costs will go up as the uptake goes up. Should be interesting to see if they are cheaper or more expensive 20 years from now.

I didn't really discuss cost, but yes, infrastructure will need to be upgraded and additions built to accomodate charging of EVs. That cost will be passed off to the consumer, as expected. They're not insurmountable problems. If petroleum from Azerbaijan can eventually end up in your gas tank, power infrastructure problems can certainly be solved.

I don't have an EV so I don't have first-hand experience, but how much does it cost to charge it now? $10 for 200 miles of range? Let's assume that. $20 for 400 miles of range. Currently, gas is $5.40 per gallon and I get about 24 mpg combined, which is about $80 per 400 miles. So even if electric costs doubled, it's cheaper.

Gas prices are only going to get higher as OPEC isn't planning on being charitable so as electricity costs go up, so will gas prices. It's already $10 a gallon in some countries and we're headed that way in NA. $15-$20 per gallon is the future.

It's also a tricky comparison, but electricity will remain cheaper until we're able to reach a level of gas consumption that would make us far less reliant on fuel from OPEC.

Plenty of opportunity for energy companies to make money. Higher cost for charging EVs (e.g. road taxes included) compared to other residential power, higher price to charge during peak hours, charging restrictions during peak demand (e.g. energy saving meters for AC).

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

Even if we charged the tesla for free with rainbow and unicorn energy, a Corolla is only using ~$2047 a year in fuel

Data for this figure: 2022 corolla rated MPG = 31/40 city/highway, 33 combined. Average it to 33 MPG at 15,000 miles a year is 455 gallons. Even at current record gas prices of $4.50, it's $2027 in annual fuel cost. If gas went back to $2.50 we ar elooking at $1127

At $2000 a year in fuel cost, it takes 15 years and 210,000 miles to save that $30K price delta. And this assumes electricity is free. Mine isn't.

Using a corolla hybrid:

24K purchase
53 MPG
15,000 miles per year
283 gallons per year
@$4.50 = $1273 per year
@$2.50 = $707 Per year

vs:, $50K EV that runs on free electricity:
@$4.50 = $1273 = 20 years and 295,000 miles
@$2.50 = $707 = 35 years and 525,000 miles

I looked up the average cost to drive a model 3, ~$0.03 per mile, so $450 per year at 15,000 miles. Using that figure, breakeven is at 97 years and 1.5 million miles compared to $2.50 gas in a Corolla hybrid.



Hybrids aren't that bad to drive, I put 180K on one from 2009 to 2018, and it only cost $4k more on the purchase price over the regular base engine. It has more horse power and lots more torque too.

[ga9213]

Originally Posted by ZL9M2

Yes, it is particularly relevant. Total environmental and economic impact.... When you start dealing with facts, reality and common sense the argument for EVs breaks down quickly. Step away from the Kool Aid for a second. And if your tax dollars paid for "free" gas stations to be built for every "free" recharging site the argument breaks down further. This isn't that hard....

You have some of those? I haven't seen any from you yet.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by ZL9M2

Yes, it is particularly relevant. Total environmental and economic impact.... When you start dealing with facts, reality and common sense the argument for EVs breaks down quickly. Step away from the Kool Aid for a second. And if your tax dollars paid for "free" gas stations to be built for every "free" recharging site the argument breaks down further. This isn't that hard....

Full disclosure, I work in the power industry, we generate, transport, and distribute in over a dozen states. It's an incredibly expensive process and not without environmental impact. It's also incredibly slow to change. It can take over 10 years to bring a transmission path online.

The grid isn't ready for what people want it to do. It could probably adapt if we were wiling to forego air-conditioning though, so there are some options...

We are still waiting for night time solar to be invented. Until then, we aren't ready.

[Ximian]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

Even at current record gas prices of $4.50, it's $2027 in annual fuel cost. If gas went back to $2.50 we ar elooking at $1127

If we went back to $0.01 per gallon, it would only be $4.45 for a year! But at the more likely (than $2.50) $10 per gallon, it's 4500 per year. Still, a long time to meet the cost difference. Then again, a Model 3 isn't your only option. Using the Nissan Leaf as an example, you're already ahead with it on cost, even with the model with a bigger battery.

"Current record gas prices" is only of you look at the last 10 years. June 2008 gas prices were a bit over $5.30 per gallon, adjusted for inflation.

10 years ago, EVs were far more expensive to operate and we'll never see more than a few thousand examples on the road. 10 years from now, it'll be cheaper than today.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by Ximian

If we went back to $0.01 per gallon, it would only be $4.45 for a year! But at the more likely (than $2.50) $10 per gallon, it's 4500 per year. Still, a long time to meet the cost difference. Then again, a Model 3 isn't your only option. Using the Nissan Leaf as an example, you're already ahead with it on cost, even with the model with a bigger battery.

"Current record gas prices" is only of you look at the last 10 years. June 2008 gas prices were a bit over $5.30 per gallon, adjusted for inflation.

10 years ago, EVs were far more expensive to operate and we'll never see more than a few thousand examples on the road. 10 years from now, it'll be cheaper than today.

Electricity is going to cost more too. That was already mentioned, but I'll confirm as an insider that it's definitely true.

We have run out of rivers to dam (and are actively removing some Dam's already), no one wants Nuclear, and the sun doesn't always shine and the wind doesn't always blow. Where will we get all these new watts from?

[Ximian]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

Electricity is going to cost more too. That was already mentioned, but I'll confirm as an insider that it's definitely true.

We have run out of rivers to dam (and are actively removing some Dam's already), no one wants Nuclear, and the sun doesn't always shine and the wind doesn't always blow. Where will we get all these new watts from?

Plenty of places left to add wind turbines and solar. The overlap of times when there isn't sun shining and wind blowing isn't as significant as you're implying. Plus, having tens of thousands of batteries in each city connected to the local grid in the future could certainly help reduce the need for blackouts.

It's not like we're at the limits of capacity for different sources of electricity. I'm sure you're familiar with - https://www.eia.gov/electricity/mont...?t=epmt_6_07_a

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by Ximian

Plenty of places left to add wind turbines and solar. The overlap of times when there isn't sun shining and wind blowing isn't as significant as you're implying. Plus, having tens of thousands of batteries in each city connected to the local grid in the future could certainly help reduce the need for blackouts.

It's not like we're at the limits of capacity for different sources of electricity. I'm sure you're familiar with - https://www.eia.gov/electricity/mont...?t=epmt_6_07_a

You sure about that? This is the system load in California yesterday. And it looks worse than this in Winter. (tip, imported energy in this grapy isn't very green either).

https://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/supply.html

Scroll down to supply trend and set the date to yesterday.

Then set the date to 6 months ago and you can see what it's like in winter.

You do realize the sun isn't always out, right?

We aren't at the limits everywhere, but we are in many places, and we are only adding "unstable" supply to fill in the gaps. Imagine taking a job that paid less, and your spouse got a new job that only paid on sunny days. You might clear the same income per year, but it wont be stable. You can save your money, but you can't efficiently save watts at this scale. It's also not economical to send California sun watts to North Dakota on a windless North Dakota day, nor north Dakota wind watts to California on a cloudy California day.

The normal reply I hear is "don't worry, they will figure it out". I'm one of those "they's", and I'm saying "good luck with that..."

Get ready for brownouts and rolling blackouts.

[Ximian]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

You sure about that? This is the system load in California yesterday. And it looks worse than this in Winter. (tip, imported energy in this grapy isn't very green either).

https://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/supply.html

Scroll down to supply trend and set the date to yesterday.

Then set the date to 6 months ago and you can see what it's like in winter.

You do realize the sun isn't always out, right?

We aren't at the limits everywhere, but we are in many places, and we are only adding "unstable" supply to fill in the gaps. Imagine taking a job that paid less, and your spouse got a new job that only paid on sunny days. You might clear the same income per year, but it wont be stable. You can save your money, but you can't efficiently save watts at this scale. It's also not economical to send California sun watts to North Dakota on a windless North Dakota day, nor north Dakota wind watts to California on a cloudy California day.

The normal reply I hear is "don't worry, they will figure it out". I'm one of those "they's", and I'm saying "good luck with that..."

Get ready for brownouts and rolling blackouts.

I see now. Your argument seems to be that charging many EVs with power supplied only from renewable sources certainly isn't going to match the demand. Of course, anyone can agree to that for the foreseeable future.

Adopting a new way of doing things doesn't have to be perfect in every aspect before it's acceptable. I'm not caught up in the false marketing of EV's being "green" so we can certainly continue to power EVs with coal or natural gas to meet the gap. It's awful for the environment, but the alternative is awful for the environment as well. Not a big deal.

The long term goal is significantly reducing oil imports and gaining energy independence so we're not reliant on a bunch of lunatics to live life normally. The greenhouse gas emission reductions are certainly an added bonus.

Car companies are going electric, utility companies are upgrading and adding renewable capacity. Utility companies will continue to want to make money so they'll provide that energy, one way or another. Similar thing happened when air condition systems started becoming popular.