[zx10guy]

Been sitting by eating the popcorn to see if anyone would bring this point up. Yes, there is a 2035 mandate. Many would agree based on how EV tech is progressing that it'll miss the target of being a true replacement for ICE vehicles by that date if it even ever does. But this 2035 mandate isn't set in stone. Yes, it's been legislated but with any legislation, it can be changed. It's not as if by 2035 fossil fuels will be gone. Nor that by 2035, the planet is going to be the next Venus. Those arguing against the 2035 mandate haven't pulled this all together into one succinct thing which is we do have the power to make the change. Just vote the people out of office. 2024 is coming up soon. If change doesn't happen with the next election then we have no one else to blame but ourselves.

[KRS_SN]

The factories are churning out 1000s of clones of the same every minute.
Selling them at a cut price is an attempt to keep selling them as if sales fall share prices fall and if production needs to slow down there are greater losses as maintaining these factories at full steam and cutting price per unit is the less painful option.
All good unless you own a tesla and your current cars resale plummeted or if you are looking to buy a tesla as more cuts will come so wait.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by KRS_SN

The factories are churning out 1000s of clones of the same every minute.
Selling them at a cut price is an attempt to keep selling them as if sales fall share prices fall and if production needs to slow down there are greater losses as maintaining these factories at full steam and cutting price per unit is the less painful option.
All good unless you own a tesla and your current cars resale plummeted or if you are looking to buy a tesla as more cuts will come so wait.

I think all car manufacturers will be slashing prices as the economy tanks. Tesla just lead the way. Resale value of everyone’s cars, especially coming out of Covid is going to be devastating because most people paid over retail for their vehicles for a couple of years. I’ve watched a couple of “lets hate on car dealership” videos talking about this. It seems people that don’t understand how the free market works blame car dealerships for prices during Covid. But that’s another thread somewhere else. Either way in my opinion that’s the only reason why Elon cut prices. Sales are declining everywhere. I think anyone in the middle class or lower middle class needing a car soon should wait. I think they will be finding some pretty sweet deals in the not too distant future including Tesla cars.

[zx10guy]

The reckoning is coming also due to people losing their jobs or costs from inflation. I still maintain most of the cars purchased these past couple of years are from people that didn't need them but just wanted something flashy and new. People flush with extra cash from all the stimulus money that had more dollars than sense. With inflation making daily living with paying for basic needs being more expensive, something is going to have to give. Loan defaults and repos are also putting pressure on used car prices and by default new car prices too. Then we also have people starting to lose their jobs.

My mom actually needed a car during this insane car market as her previous car's engine took a major dump. Fortunately, I was able to get her into a car paying just MSRP. I also purchased during this crazy stupid period. I bought a new S1000RR; granted it's a motorcycle. I bought it for $500 under sticker. I had a line I wouldn't cross. I wasn't going to pay over sticker.

As far as resale goes, that's a non consideration for both my mom and myself. We typically hold on to our vehicles till the wheels fall off. The only car I actually traded in was way back in '93/94. Since then, my other cars were done in when one had a head gasket failure that wasn't worth the expense to do the repairs so it got junked and the other was taken out by a deer so insurance totaled the car and took possession of it. One car I sold to one of the car buying services and was the only car I've purchased used.

[KRS_SN]

Originally Posted by Patton250

I think all car manufacturers will be slashing prices as the economy tanks. Tesla just lead the way. Resale value of everyone’s cars, especially coming out of Covid is going to be devastating because most people paid over retail for their vehicles for a couple of years. I’ve watched a couple of “lets hate on car dealership” videos talking about this. It seems people that don’t understand how the free market works blame car dealerships for prices during Covid. But that’s another thread somewhere else. Either way in my opinion that’s the only reason why Elon cut prices. Sales are declining everywhere. I think anyone in the middle class or lower middle class needing a car soon should wait. I think they will be finding some pretty sweet deals in the not too distant future including Tesla cars.

You are right..
Another factor is....
1.less ice is being sold/produced over past few years (especially post covid) as therewas demand for evs..
2.more customers are looking for used ice than used ev.(autotrader data) ...
there are 1000's upon 1000's of lease end teslas hitting the used market.
All cars will take a beating given the recession but evs are on a different trajectory of depreciation.
But a good quality ice is still holding value better purely because there is less of it around to buy.

[zx10guy]

Originally Posted by KRS_SN

You are right..
Another factor is....
1.less ice is being sold/produced over past few years (especially post covid) as therewas demand for evs..
2.more customers are looking for used ice than used ev.(autotrader data) ...
there are 1000's upon 1000's of lease end teslas hitting the used market.
All cars will take a beating given the recession but evs are on a different trajectory of depreciation.
But a good quality ice is still holding value better purely because there is less of it around to buy.

EVs to me are similar to computers/consumer electronics. Future software updates might be an issue but the elephant in the room is power. Since there is no standardization of batteries or charging, you're at the mercy of what these manufacturers will do with their next iteration and how long they'll support what you have now. With ICE, gas is gas. It's pretty much been this way since its invention. The storage medium which is the fuel tank typically doesn't expire and lasts the life of the car. But with EVs you have both combined into one part. We've already seen some EVs lose the ability to get new battery packs from the manufacturer which currently is the only source to get new battery packs.

Also if some new charging method comes out that shortens the time to recharge a battery pack, the demand for previous gen cars will drop due to this. This is assuming any future charging upgrade will be backwards compatible with previous EVs. Which goes back to how ICE has been so successful. Gas is gas. Any new and future ICE vehicles will run on current gas formulations.

[M5Rick]

Must bring on second thoughts of that shiny EV dropping like a stone in value as soon as you buy it like no other ICE car

[KRS_SN]

Originally Posted by M5Rick

Must bring on second thoughts of that shiny EV dropping like a stone in value as soon as you buy it like no other ICE car

Most (not all) people who buy them aren't car guys..many(like my pal)bought them as electricity is cheap I'll run them for near free while sucker ice guys pay at the pump. And my Tesla is (sorry.. was) the slowest depreciating vehicle.

But when you factor in the extra depreciation and insurance costs etc for mass market ev when the lease end comes the cost per mile of your ev may be equal to this if not more

[KRS_SN]

M5Rick
Regarding synthetic fuels
Surely track cars and performance cars and such who need light weight and performance around corners need this than battery packs.
The cynic in me thinks carbon accounting will make it look green as it will be classed as from waste etc.
I haven't looked into it but taking out what's needed from the earth using infrastructure and processes and technologies that are already there for track use etc come the time seems to be the green sustainable thing but don't tell anybody :-)

[BGM-M3COMP]

Synthetic fuel is best served for motor sports.

They’re not going to make a mass transition into synthetic for the general public. Get your home chargers ready

[LogicalApex]

Originally Posted by zx10guy

Been sitting by eating the popcorn to see if anyone would bring this point up. Yes, there is a 2035 mandate. Many would agree based on how EV tech is progressing that it'll miss the target of being a true replacement for ICE vehicles by that date if it even ever does. But this 2035 mandate isn't set in stone. Yes, it's been legislated but with any legislation, it can be changed. It's not as if by 2035 fossil fuels will be gone. Nor that by 2035, the planet is going to be the next Venus. Those arguing against the 2035 mandate haven't pulled this all together into one succinct thing which is we do have the power to make the change. Just vote the people out of office. 2024 is coming up soon. If change doesn't happen with the next election then we have no one else to blame but ourselves.

I wasn’t aware that there is a 2035 mandate on the federal level that bans ICE. In the US it is limited to adds states like CA. It is also limited to other international areas like the EU. Neither of which are impacted by US presidential elections.

In the US context 2035 may be met as it covers new vehicle sales in a small number of states…

[M5Rick]

Originally Posted by KRS_SN

Most (not all) people who buy them aren't car guys..many(like my pal)bought them as electricity is cheap I'll run them for near free while sucker ice guys pay at the pump. And my Tesla is (sorry.. was) the slowest depreciating vehicle.

But when you factor in the extra depreciation and insurance costs etc for mass market ev when the lease end comes the cost per mile of your ev may be equal to this if not more

I know someone also who bought a new Tes and indeed he's no car guy also.
Aside from that I always wanted to know what R/T means on an American muscle car and finally looked it up! Road and Track.

[zx10guy]

Originally Posted by LogicalApex

I wasn’t aware that there is a 2035 mandate on the federal level that bans ICE. In the US it is limited to adds states like CA. It is also limited to other international areas like the EU. Neither of which are impacted by US presidential elections.

In the US context 2035 may be met as it covers new vehicle sales in a small number of states…

There isn't. But you have an administration/party that is currently laying down the ground work to foster the conditions for this 2035 mandate in various states.

Voting out the current administration would send a signal down to the local level that these policies are not going to be tolerated anymore.

[LogicalApex]

Originally Posted by zx10guy

There isn't. But you have an administration/party that is currently laying down the ground work to foster the conditions for this 2035 mandate in various states.

Voting out the current administration would send a signal down to the local level that these policies are not going to be tolerated anymore.

Why would you want to send such a signal? The federalism model is supposed to be a good part of the American system. If states want to individually adopt ICE bans they are the closest to their constituents and are in the best place to do so. States that don’t want to have such a ban are free not to adopt one.

Forcing all states to adopt one policy or the other means you’ll have some states being forced into a position that their citizens don’t agree with.

Confusing to me how you’d see that as a better outcome…

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

Seventeen out of the 50 US states follow California emissions standards, so 34%, not a majority, but significant. I matched the 17 states to their contributions in new car sales in dollars, and its 32% of the total. California is No. 1 in car sales.

While the ban is not Federal at this point, what is to stop a future Congress (both houses) and a future Administration from passing such a law? Nothing. The argument come 2032? Well 34% of US states have already enacted the ICE ban, so let's just add the other 62%; its good for the Planet.

Emissions rules aren’t an automatic attachment to the ICE ban. States have to pass separate laws similarly adopting CA style ICE bans. Which, again, is federalism at work…

But I forget that those who care about federalism only care about it for issues they like and not for issues they don’t like.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by zx10guy

EVs to me are similar to computers/consumer electronics. Future software updates might be an issue but the elephant in the room is power. Since there is no standardization of batteries or charging, you're at the mercy of what these manufacturers will do with their next iteration and how long they'll support what you have now. With ICE, gas is gas. It's pretty much been this way since its invention. The storage medium which is the fuel tank typically doesn't expire and lasts the life of the car. But with EVs you have both combined into one part. We've already seen some EVs lose the ability to get new battery packs from the manufacturer which currently is the only source to get new battery packs.

Also if some new charging method comes out that shortens the time to recharge a battery pack, the demand for previous gen cars will drop due to this. This is assuming any future charging upgrade will be backwards compatible with previous EVs. Which goes back to how ICE has been so successful. Gas is gas. Any new and future ICE vehicles will run on current gas formulations.

And this is definitely the Achilles’ heel of electric vehicles. I don’t care what any government says, or pro government law citizen says, there will be no mandates for 2035 or any year if they don’t speed up the charging times and get electric charging stations on every corner throughout the whole country. It’s just not going to happen. Not to mention unless you own a house you’re not going to have a charging station there. Not a fast charger anyway. People in high-rise buildings and apartment complexes won’t have that option. So the only option is charging stations like gas stations. They must be everywhere. And more importantly, they must be fast. Like under five minutes fast. Until that happens electric vehicles are nothing more than interesting toys for the upper middle class. Believe me I have no problem with that but that’s all they are for now.

[zx10guy]

Originally Posted by LogicalApex

Why would you want to send such a signal? The federalism model is supposed to be a good part of the American system. If states want to individually adopt ICE bans they are the closest to their constituents and are in the best place to do so. States that don’t want to have such a ban are free not to adopt one.

Forcing all states to adopt one policy or the other means you’ll have some states being forced into a position that their citizens don’t agree with.

Confusing to me how you’d see that as a better outcome…



Emissions rules aren’t an automatic attachment to the ICE ban. States have to pass separate laws similarly adopting CA style ICE bans. Which, again, is federalism at work…

But I forget that those who care about federalism only care about it for issues they like and not for issues they don’t like.

I said it sends a signal to the officials at the local level. And I did say if you're against this and don't vote another administration in, just don't vote, or still vote for the same, then there's no one to bitch to with the fallout of these policies.

There are times when even the voted representatives for the constituents get it wrong massively. I'll just point to the debacle that is the recent DC crime bill. It's not an unknown platform about how the one party views what is appropriate with prosecuting crimes. With the elections coming, it's pretty obvious why the President made a 180 with supporting the overturn of this idiotic crime bill. Faced with all of this, guess what the DC council did? Pull back the bill.

[zx10guy]

Originally Posted by Patton250

And this is definitely the Achilles’ heel of electric vehicles. I don’t care what any government says, or pro government law citizen says, there will be no mandates for 2035 or any year if they don’t speed up the charging times and get electric charging stations on every corner throughout the whole country. It’s just not going to happen. Not to mention unless you own a house you’re not going to have a charging station there. Not a fast charger anyway. People in high-rise buildings and apartment complexes won’t have that option. So the only option is charging stations like gas stations. They must be everywhere. And more importantly, they must be fast. Like under five minutes fast. Until that happens electric vehicles are nothing more than interesting toys for the upper middle class. Believe me I have no problem with that but that’s all they are for now.

More to the point. Production and transmission capacity. Those without a bias know nuclear is the only real solution to meet the increased demand while staying "green". Yet there hasn't been a new nuclear power plant built in many many years. In fact some nuclear power plants are being shut down. Then there's transmission capacity. There's going to have to be more transmission lines installed to get the additional power where it needs to be. The fastest way to do this is above ground transmission lines. But then you have the NIMBY folks that will push back on having transmission lines running near where they live.

With all of this pressure from the increased demand, do people really think prices per kWh will stay the same? It's only going to go up. To add to the issue, those of us that don't own EVs will be subsidizing those that do own them through higher power bills.

[BGM-M3COMP]

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by zx10guy

More to the point. Production and transmission capacity. Those without a bias know nuclear is the only real solution to meet the increased demand while staying "green". Yet there hasn't been a new nuclear power plant built in many many years. In fact some nuclear power plants are being shut down. Then there's transmission capacity. There's going to have to be more transmission lines installed to get the additional power where it needs to be. The fastest way to do this is above ground transmission lines. But then you have the NIMBY folks that will push back on having transmission lines running near where they live.

With all of this pressure from the increased demand, do people really think prices per kWh will stay the same? It's only going to go up. To add to the issue, those of us that don't own EVs will be subsidizing those that do own them through higher power bills.

You are exactly correct. That’s how we know this is all a farce and has nothing to do with the environment. If it did, they would be slapping up nuclear power plants left and right. I think the last one that got built was the early 70s. Lol.

[zx10guy]

Originally Posted by Patton250

You are exactly correct. That’s how we know this is all a farce and has nothing to do with the environment. If it did, they would be slapping up nuclear power plants left and right. I think the last one that got built was the early 70s. Lol.

Yep. And if the supporters of this EV plan are really serious about making this all work, they'd be announcing the construction of nuclear power plants now as it takes time to clear all the planning/regulatory stuff before construction can even begin. Yet, we hear crickets on that front too.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by zx10guy

Yep. And if the supporters of this EV plan are really serious about making this all work, they'd be announcing the construction of nuclear power plants now as it takes time to clear all the planning/regulatory stuff before construction can even begin. Yet, we hear crickets on that front too.

The absolute funniest of all these is California. These dudes have rolling blackouts left and right already. Can you imagine if just 20% of the cars were electric in that state? Actually, to be honest, I think it would be hilarious to watch.

I don’t know what’s so complicated to understand that nuclear is the most green energy of all. The whole country should be powered by nuclear. Instead, they’d rather kill birds with windmills and prevent spawning salmon from migrating with hydroelectric.

[LogicalApex]

Originally Posted by zx10guy

I said it sends a signal to the officials at the local level. And I did say if you're against this and don't vote another administration in, just don't vote, or still vote for the same, then there's no one to bitch to with the fallout of these policies.

There are times when even the voted representatives for the constituents get it wrong massively. I'll just point to the debacle that is the recent DC crime bill. It's not an unknown platform about how the one party views what is appropriate with prosecuting crimes. With the elections coming, it's pretty obvious why the President made a 180 with supporting the overturn of this idiotic crime bill. Faced with all of this, guess what the DC council did? Pull back the bill.

You’re now hypothesizing that the legislature and governors of states may be getting it wrong so the federal government needs to step in to “tell them this won’t be tolerated”. Yet, at the same time you are drumming up fear that the current administration will “make bans national”.

You can’t have it both ways. Either you support Federalism or you don’t.

People in IL don’t need to meddle in the politics of CA. Leave that to the Californians.

The current model for ICE bans in the US is the appropriate model for our system. Irrespective of your feelings on the feasibility of reaching the target.