06-23-2019, 09:15 PM | #45 |
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Most people don't realize that the infrastructure for increased electrical energy distribution is not there nor do they understand what it would require to get them there if it were possible. And the closer you get to the answer the more damage and money squandered. EVs have a niche that doesn't fit many/most people. |
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06-24-2019, 01:14 AM | #46 | |
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- 288TWh (Terawatt hours) of power required. - 3,000 locations required to replicate current interstate / Canadian freeway truck stops. - Leading to an average truck stop delivering about 100GWh per year. - To deal with peak demand with minimum delays, using MW chargers, 35 charge points would be needed per truck stop (assuming 3 times capacity for peaks). - Assuming about 90% storage efficiency of power and the ability to top up from the national grid or supply excess power to the grid from a local solar system, about 350kWh per year can be produced per square metre for an average North American location, so the truck stop would need about 286,000 square metres of panels, but angled ground-mounted panels would need to be spread over several times that area for the sun at low angles, so would likely spread over about a square kilometre (probably double that in Canada and half that in Florida). Solar panel cost would be about $200 per square metre, or about $57m for the farm. - to smooth supply and demand relative to amount of sun and time of year even with grid feed, likely at least 48 hours of battery storage would be advisable, so about 550MWh of battery capacity at a cost of about $160/kWh for $88m in total. - total construction and installation cost (including inverters, connection to grid, buildings, solar panel mounting and cabling, etc) will be at least double or more likely triple the panel and battery costs, so about $400m per truck stop in total, or $1.2 trillion for North America, not including amortization and operating costs. |
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06-24-2019, 10:34 AM | #47 |
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06-24-2019, 12:19 PM | #48 |
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At the moment when taking infrastructure build costs into account I think electric is still more expensive than dino fuelled vehicles. It is a lot clearer with interstate trucking to calculate the costs, but the current early adopters of electric cars are insulated from the true infrastructure costs due to there being enough capacity in the current electrical supply system. In reality the amortized cost of home power generation, battery recycling costs and a portion of the public charging infrastructure should all be factored into the ownership costs.
From a electric semi-trailer perspective there are a number of problems to solve: - tractor weight is about 50% higher than a conventional diesel due to the battery weight, so reduces overall payload by about 5 tons. Either roads have to be upgraded to take higher weights, exotic materials used to reduce tractor weight or more trucks are needed. - build the previously mentioned interstate charging structure, likely requiring a significant chunk of land for each location for a solar farm. - gain acceptance from a very conservative industry. - demonstrate economics are sound and accurate compared with conventional diesel semis, if not early adopters will soon fail due to tight margins. If for North America the truck stop charging infrastructure can be built for $1.2 trillion and amortized over 20 years with about 10% per year of the capital cost in operating costs, that would lead to a cost per mile of about $1.00. Conventional diesel fuel costs where the operating costs and amortization of capital should be built into the price is about $0.60 per mile at the moment in North America ($3 to $4 per gallon, 6 miles per gallon fuel consumption for semis). The higher electric vehicle cost will probaly be offset by higher lifetime maintenance of the diesel vehicle. What will most likely close the gap between diesel/gas and electric is higher fuel cost more than reduced electric component costs, due to the construction and operation being a bigger portion of the cost (based on electric storage and solar generation info available at the moment). In Europe the fuel cost gap to electric is already closed due to taxation approaches. Canada is heading that way, too. |
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06-24-2019, 09:33 PM | #49 | |
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100% agree with your estimation, btw. It's all about infrastructure and we will need brand new electric grid everywhere. Add to that, people think that solar panel would be 'green' or 'clean' energy. I say we just don't know the side effect yet. Solar panel takes the energy that suppose to hit the ground. It will change the climate around and no one know the side effect of that. There is no free money. |
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06-26-2019, 02:50 PM | #50 |
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Not sure if anyone mentioned it but those "eco-friendly" batteries don't just magically appear, nickel mining is a NASTY business.
I also retract my desire for an electric 280Z and instead want a 2002. I would just badge it an i2002 like the i3 or whatever BUT BMW did actually make a few electric 2002s way back when, think for the World Cup or Olympics or something, and called it the Elektro. So a 2002 Elektro would be pretty awesome.
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06-30-2019, 07:27 PM | #51 | |
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Yes - you're right - comparing straight-line acceleration numbers, the Tesla will 'win'. If that's your goal - go for it. I'm not interested in giving up the enjoyment driving a 6-sp manual transmission - with a 'chirping' turbo-6 under the hood. So - I can only get to 60 in 4.x seconds? Boo-hoo - poor me. Do you want to DRIVE, or be driven? Your choice. |
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