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Originally Posted by XKxRome0ox
Quote:
Originally Posted by antzcrashing
Sounds like its story time so here's mine:
Began looking for my first career job in 2009 just after the crash and the market wasn't great so went directly to grad school, somehow managed to get accepted to my top choice an Ivy League school which had my major. Long story short graduated 2 years later and the market was much healthier then. Saw my parent's investment and retirement accounts get hammered, fortunately they didn't panic sell, so they recovered over time. I was too young and too poor to put money in the market during that crash but watching it all play out made me a hawk. Buy when there is blood in the water and sell when everyone thinks its roses. I've taken advise from someone that capitalized big on the downturn, his advice: keep cash on the sidelines waiting for the moment. The only way I see that to be possible is to pare back cash by selling stock when you sense that things are just too optimistic. That happened for me mid through 2019. Started parking most of my brokerage and half of my 401k in cash. Granted I started too early, but when the pandemic hit I dumped all that money and some more that I got from a bonus payout into the market. Made 50% on my overall brokerage portfolio and that with only as much as 85% invested. The market was on fire and you could do well buying the s&p, but my way worked as well or better. I buy individual stocks in large part, trading frequently. This might not be your style but it has worked for me.
Right now it seems like the market has factored in the vaccine and reopening and that the big gains are behind us, but I am not convinced. There is still a lot of money sidelined waiting for the risk(s) to be mitigated before they jump back in. I am almost fully invested (90% in market) and skewed heavily in stocks which will benefit from the reopen (travel, leisure, etc).
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so if covid-19 didn't start when it did, you would have just been sitting on the sidelines missing out on the market gains from the bull run that just wouldn't quit |
That's a fair point, however
1) covid did happen
2) the market was overvalued as is, and even in absence of covid, a hard pullback was going to happen
During the period leading up to there were a lot of yellow flags that were showing up, Unemplyment was very low almost numerically full-employment, but people were often under employed (uber drivers with college degrees etc), wage growth was slow, it was a period of upward steady slide, and periods of low volatility are often followed by periods of high volatility ie a surge or a sink. My money was on a sink