Going through a similar process right now, and my logic is mainly: If you want a 3 year old car, determine how much of a "good deal" your lease buyout/residual is compared to the current market for cars. My opinion is that for such a low mileage car, you're probably "winning"/"getting a good deal" by buying out your vehicle - the low mileage incentive is only from $200-300, and you have to buy a new BMW. Having 20K miles vs. 30K is probably worth at least a grand - KBB says about $1,200.
In theory, often lease residuals were set high by BMWFS to reduce payments, so you can get a better deal on the open market. I think I could probably buy a car for a bit less than my buyout price, if I was willing to search the entire US, fly out, and buy private party. In practice, for a very low-volume car like the 2 series, especially if you have a rare spec (6MT, or moonroof delete, etc.) it may be impossible to reasonably find another car that you like. Plus, with lease buyout, you are basically being "charged" for the extra knowledge that you know the vehicle is good and has been taken care of (and also potentially the "one owner" designation). The entity with more power sets the pricing here.
In the past, it looks like you used to be able to negotiate buyouts, but that has
changed (I can think of ways around this including family member buy -> transfer, because BMWFS cannot go into CA DMV systems and request title status) but it seems that dealerships are basically not going to play ball to squeeze BMWFS margins unless you know someone really well.
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Originally Posted by BEM-S4
When you are within 120 days they can start looking at a buyout incentive. My F31 for example they gave me $4K towards purchase, F23 was just $900. All depends on the car and the month and what programs they are running. Outside 120 days there are no special deals to be had. You can have them CPO the car during the process, and if financing through BMWFS you get a discount on the interest rate if you do included maintenance so it's basically free.
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Thanks for the tip, BEM. I called and now the F22 looks like just $500 buyout incentive. Do you know what "CPO the car during the process" means? It seems like if I buy out the lease, I just directly get a title from BMWNA and nothing happens that is special. Do you have to do this through a dealer?
One final option that I don't recommend unless you have a trade-in quote like from CarMax, is that if you want a new car still but the lease buyout is a really good deal (buyout $20K, you can sell for $23K), you can buy out the lease, then immediately sell to a new party, pocketing the difference, and not have to pay sales tax at all in CA (you just need to do it within 10 days). Most people don't know about this option and assume you can't easily resell a leased car without sales tax problems.
See:
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You will not have to pay sales tax if you follow the section below. Here is the statue from California Board of Equalization:
Sales and Use Tax Law
Chapter 3.5. Vehicles, Vessels, and Aircraft
Article 1
Section 6277
6277.Presumption on sale to lessee. There shall be a presumption that a transfer of a vehicle to a lessee by a lessor, as defined in Section 372 of the Vehicle Code, was a sale for resale if the lessee transfers title and registration to a third party within 10 days from the date the lessee acquired title from the lessor at the expiration or termination of the lease. The presumption may be rebutted by evidence that the sale was not for resale prior to use.
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https://www.quora.com/In-California-...uy-out-the-car