I think the income level and surplus to savings you're running indicate you can afford it. But I think there are a number of questions that matter quite a lot that you need to answer for yourself before making that decision:
1. How many months worth of expenses do you have stashed in an emergency fund? 3, 6, 12? If you're right out of school and making $100k/year with only $1k/mo left over in surplus, I'd assume that the answer is 'not enough.' Building an emergency fund should be a priority as a young professional, especially in these uncertain times.
2. What does the m240i do for you that the GTI doesn't? I was damn close to buying a GTI Sport with the performance package instead of the 230i myself. Living in a big city, the GTI might actually be better in many ways. If you're tracking the car, the BMW will be a big jump for dynamics and power...but if its just about a spirited drive now and then, the GTI will get the job done and the BMW really is just a status symbol.
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