[morphomeman]

Just curious: has anyone actually looked to compare prices of MT and AT BMWs in USA 5 or 10 years out? Just to make it easier, let's say only M models.

[BEM-S4]

Originally Posted by morphomeman

Just curious: has anyone actually looked to compare prices of MT and AT BMWs in USA 5 or 10 years out? Just to make it easier, let's say only M models.

One thing I will say about this comparison - which is the right thing to think about - the auto option you could get in the M3 in 2005 or 2006 as an example was a complete piece of shit. So looking at that car you'd have the manual premium then a multiplier effect of the truly shitty auto option.

So you're on the right track but perhaps discount the premium a bit since the current auto isn't garbage - quite the opposite in fact.

[230iZTR]

I think we're at the peak of the user-driven car. Its going to be a slow and steady transition towards utilitarian fleets of automated and electrified vehicles from here on out. Only the rarest, wildest, and lowest mileage cars will maintain any value in the long run because the demand is going to shrink dramatically relative to supply.

Drivable cars will become an expensive hobby like horses - a small number of people will compete in shows and sports with the most desirable examples, and everyone else will treat them as novelties.

The E30 M3 and the F22 M2 & F82 M4 will retain value as the desirable bookends of the era for BMW, and the low production LTW, CSL, & GTS's and pedigreed racecars will be where the beaucoup-bucks are.

And the options are going to matter. The stripped out base models with only the most track-oriented options are going to retain the most value for the motorsport crowd, and the fully-optioned cars with rare paint codes are going to retain the most value for the show crowd.

I know its a pretty bleak view, but I think its realistic when you look at the trends in classic and muscle cars.

[emtrey]

If you use inflation rate alone as a guide, $4000. in 1968 is the same as $28917. in today's dollars. That does not even account for stock market investment potential increase in valuation.

So it may look like all those old muscle cars ( and I want one bad) are up crazy amounts in value BUT they are not investments.

I made some $$ on 2 cars in my whole life ( see early post in this thread). All the rest, decreasing assets. Both those cars were driven and enjoyed. Not DDs and well cared for but NOT purchased hoping to make money in the future.. Just luck. 280 SL actually was best investment ( 4X $$ invested) because its value increase allowed me to buy the 308GTB not add the $$ to my portfolio.

Look at the prices air cooled Porsche or first/second generation Mustangs.. There were lots of them so rarity is not the only factor. Desirability of the vehicle at the time is was new, cars that people wish they could have bought when they could not afford them, or cars that are not run of mill experiences will have potential to increase in value.


Our cars may hold their value due to less involving cars taking over but its unlikely to create a significant windfall. Enjoy your cars now, take care of them and hope for the best. In the meantime, put your money in solid investments, not cars.

[Merc for hire]

Back in Jan 2017:
Put the $ you want to spend on a Honda Civic into Nasdaq/S&P 500 call options for January 2018,
Sell the call options in January 2018
Buy BMW M2

Now:
Put the $ you want to spend on a M2 into Nasdaq/S&P 500 call options for January 2019
Sell the call options in January 2019
Buy Ferrari

[emtrey]

Originally Posted by Merc for hire

Back in Jan 2017:
Put the $ you want to spend on a Honda Civic into Nasdaq/S&P 500 call options for January 2018,
Sell the call options in January 2018
Buy BMW M2

Now:
Put the $ you want to spend on a M2 into Nasdaq/S&P 500 call options for January 2019
Sell the call options in January 2019
Buy Ferrari

Cool--I just ordered a 2019 488 based on your advice.

[Merc for hire]

Originally Posted by emtrey

Cool--I just ordered a 2019 488 based on your advice.

All you need is the capital and some balls to press the BUY button.
Ferrari will be yours.

Speaking about Ferrari: Check our their stock, it has been a blast in 2017. Doubled. INVEST IN RACE

[emtrey]

Originally Posted by Merc for hire

All you need is the capital and some balls to press the BUY button.
Ferrari will be yours.

Speaking about Ferrari: Check our their stock, it has been a blast in 2017. Doubled. INVEST IN RACE

I have the capital and the guts. My heart will always be with Ferrari ( enjoyed that from 1982-2006) but right now, my head is with Porsche.

Maybe I should buy the calls and order a GT3 to replace my 2006 C2S,

Of course, I would have to buy some extra calls to pay the attorney fess for the divorce.

[Merc for hire]

Originally Posted by emtrey

I have the capital and the guts. My heart will always be with Ferrari ( enjoyed that from 1982-2006) but right now, my head is with Porsche.

Maybe I should buy the calls and order a GT3 to replace my 2006 C2S,

Of course, I would have to buy some extra calls to pay the attorney fess for the divorce.

You are a smart man, clearly invested well in life!

[emtrey]

Originally Posted by Merc for hire

You are a smart man, clearly invested well in life!

Seriously. IMHO its all about building a good stock base and "hopefully" you will reach a point where your portfolio is your main source of income as retirement gets close or here ( in my case).

I have lived a very blessed car life. Not sure how it all exactly fell into place but as a crazy kid looking at all these dream cars, I never thought I would ever get a chance to actually own many of them. No complaints here if I never buy another car. Still would love a late 60s-early 70s muscle car but no place to put it.

Me at "the factory". A knee buckling, wonderful experience. Unfortunately, this pic was taken 9/11/01 so the buzz only lasted till we returned to Florence and found out what was happening at home.