[snaketh]

Anyone else here holding out on leasing a 2018 until the residuals are less shit?

This time last year the new 2017 MY residual was 57%, the new 2018 MY is 53%.

I'm considering just buying, but was hoping to use the lease as a tax write off. I like the idea of leasing too. My buddy just had a smash in his 1 year old F30 that he bought and now it has a wreck on the title.

Here's hoping Oct or Nov are better, can't see it move by more than 1 or 2 points though.

[B58togo]

Life is short. These cars make short lives more entertaining. If you want one, just do it.

[snaketh]

Originally Posted by B58togo

Life is short. These cars make short lives more entertaining. If you want one, just do it.

Agree with the sentiment, but paying 2k more for the same car seems silly. The changes BMW have made recently are frustrating. (no MSDs, limited maintenance, residuals that tank on the new model year AND existing model year).

The other models have pretty good deals still which makes it all the more annoying.

[BEM-S4]

If you can stomach a 2017 deals on those should be very good if you can find one equipped the way you want it. I got a 2016 this time last year with a 63% residual.

[snaketh]

Originally Posted by BEM-S4

If you can stomach a 2017 deals on those should be very good if you can find one equipped the way you want it. I got a 2016 this time last year with a 63% residual.

Yep I'd like to do 2017 at this point, I'm looking and there's two MT's in the color I want about 600 miles away. Still going back and forth with dealer. If he plays ball I'll probably go with that. Not looking likely though! I think 10% is a fair discount on a 2017 at this point - he does not.

[rainfall]

Originally Posted by snaketh

Yep I'd like to do 2017 at this point, I'm looking and there's two MT's in the color I want about 600 miles away. Still going back and forth with dealer. If he plays ball I'll probably go with that. Not looking likely though! I think 10% is a fair discount on a 2017 at this point - he does not.

I was on a very similar situation as you just over a year ago and would advise you to hold on until the dealer plays ball. The dealer can't control the residual, but can control how much off MSRP they give you.

Given what I learned in this forum, I was looking to get a 9% discount from an outgoing, in-stock model.

The dealer was offering 7% upfront, so I thought 9% on a cash purchase wouldn't be a big deal.

I was optimistic that the deal would happen because that particular car was pretty loaded with options (read: good room for the dealer to give me a discount off MSRP) and had a good amount of test drive miles in it.

After some exhaustive conversations with the dealer, the negotiation didn't move and I had to buy something else. 2 months later, the same dealer called me saying they would give me the discount I was looking for.

It was unfortunately too late, as I had already committed with the other purchase. Had I waited a couple more months playing poker with the dealer, I would have gotten the car at the price I wanted.

[moozi]

Originally Posted by snaketh

Agree with the sentiment, but paying 2k more for the same car seems silly. The changes BMW have made recently are frustrating. (no MSDs, limited maintenance, residuals that tank on the new model year AND existing model year).

The other models have pretty good deals still which makes it all the more annoying.

Agree. I'm not really holding out though, my ED delivery date is scheduled for mid-October so just hoping at least the residuals improve. Too much planning to bail out now and so close I can't wait! I may however consider a 24 month lease instead of 36 if October residuals are still terrible and no incentives.

[snaketh]

Originally Posted by moozi

Agree. I'm not really holding out though, my ED delivery date is scheduled for mid-October so just hoping at least the residuals improve. Too much planning to bail out now and so close I can't wait! I may however consider a 24 month lease instead of 36 if October residuals are still terrible and no incentives.

You can do a 24mo lease on a BMW?

I trawled trough the 'Post your deal' thread. These are historic residuals for 10k/36mo. Take note the newest MY is always listed, it drops as each new MY is avail to order.






As you can see, it seems to be trending down.

[bluegoldjason]

Originally Posted by snaketh

Yep I'd like to do 2017 at this point, I'm looking and there's two MT's in the color I want about 600 miles away. Still going back and forth with dealer. If he plays ball I'll probably go with that. Not looking likely though! I think 10% is a fair discount on a 2017 at this point - he does not.

10% is totally fair on a 2017 that they obviously want to move off the lot. I just bought a 2017 M240i that stickered at $52,530 for $47,250 *before* their $2000 national lease incentive. $522+tax per month for a brand new sports car? Sold.

[snaketh]

Originally Posted by bluegoldjason

10% is totally fair on a 2017 that they obviously want to move off the lot. I just bought a 2017 M240i that stickered at $52,530 for $47,250 *before* their $2000 national lease incentive. $522+tax per month for a brand new sports car? Sold.

Ended up finding a CPO M235i with 30k miles in MT with most of the options I wanted. Bought cash so no more lease worries heh.

This car is amazing!

[rainfall]

Originally Posted by snaketh

You can do a 24mo lease on a BMW?

I trawled trough the 'Post your deal' thread. These are historic residuals for 10k/36mo. Take note the newest MY is always listed, it drops as each new MY is avail to order.






As you can see, it seems to be trending down.

Thanks for the chart. I can't believe the lease residuals are now at 53%. This is insane.

[CAMOETO]

Originally Posted by rainfall

Thanks for the chart. I can't believe the lease residuals are now at 53%. This is insane.

I don't think it's insane at all. Clean 2014s with low miles are currently selling for around 55% of MSPR on the private market, and CPO examples are selling in the low 60% range. These numbers won't get any better when our cars approach the end of the model cycle 3 years from now.

[BEM-S4]

Originally Posted by CAMOETO

I don't think it's insane at all. Clean 2014s with low miles are currently selling for around 55% of MSPR on the private market, and CPO examples are selling in the low 60% range. These numbers won't get any better when our cars approach the end of the model cycle 3 years from now.

And you can't judge insane by the HEAVILY subsidized residuals BMW has used historically to drive volume. Look at Benz, Audi and others and you'll see what residuals look like in the market place.

[CAMOETO]

Originally Posted by BEM-S4

And you can't judge insane by the HEAVILY subsidized residuals BMW has used historically to drive volume. Look at Benz, Audi and others and you'll see what residuals look like in the market place.

Correct 100%. People have gotten so used to inflated residuals that realistic residuals literally shock them.

[pz619]

I got in at a 60% 12k/36 lease in October 2015 (on a 15 model) and thought that was a little low. My 3 series was 63% on a 15k. Appears the good residual days are over.

[CAMOETO]

Originally Posted by pz619

I got in at a 60% 12k/36 lease in October 2015 (on a 15 model) and thought that was a little low. My 3 series was 63% on a 15k. Appears the good residual days are over.

I guess the question is, if they can currently push the metal at realistic residuals, why would they use artificially high ones? A 2014 3 series with 45k is currently worth nowhere near 63% of MSRP. It's more like 50%-55% for CPO examples that fit that description and are actually selling.

[keylime503]

Originally Posted by CAMOETO

I guess the question is, if they can currently push the metal at realistic residuals, why would they use artificially high ones? A 2014 3 series with 45k is currently worth nowhere near 63% of MSRP. It's more like 50%-55% for CPO examples that fit that description and are actually selling.

I turned in my F32 lease in July. The residual on my car was 63% at the time (10k, 36mo). 10 weeks later it's still sitting for sale on their lot and after adding CPO to it, it's currently listed at 57% of the MSRP.

[CAMOETO]

Originally Posted by keylime503

I turned in my F32 lease in July. The residual on my car was 63% at the time (10k, 36mo). 10 weeks later it's still sitting for sale on their lot and after adding CPO to it, it's currently listed at 57% of the MSRP.

Good luck to them getting even that much. My local BMW dealer has a bunch of 2014 CPO F30s with 38k-45k miles on them taking up lot space at 55% of MSRP or less, including a 2014 CPO 335i with 41k miles that's sitting there at 50% of MSRP...