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Just spoke with my dealer on a different topic and we ran the numbers a few different ways.
If you do the $3K down, you save right around $300 total over the life of the lease. Granted I didn't NPV any of this so we're assuming $1 in 3 years is the same value as $1 today, but whatever the numbers aren't huge. In any event, risking the $3K to save $300, as others have mentioned, doesn't seem like a wise idea.
Alternatively, no $ down the MSP options is $4K, roughly, and saves you $1K over the life of the lease.
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