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I do love my AWD with snow tires - on a day like today I'm almost tempted to take a few extra 'laps' to play in the snow, and have only been close to really being stuck in the worst snowfalls (over a foot, especially if heavy wet snow, will cause issues).
But if you are only doing one, then dedicated snow tires on RWD is undoubtedly a better bet than AWD with all-seasons. More hassle to change them out, and perhaps overkill for 70% of the country, but better traction overall. I'm not a diehard manual lover, but I don't think the traction would be a big enough issue to keep you from the tranny you want - otherwise, you probably wouldn't be looking at this car at all, and would already be wasting your life in a big 4wd sport ute (or, shudder, a Subaru).
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